Confidently Wrong: Two Ways We End Up Certain But Wrong


Micro Misconcepts

Confidently wrong

31st July 2026 | Read on misconcepts.org


Note: I've been thinking about how to help you get the highest return from your finite life resources. So this week, I'm trying something new, a more compressed version focused on communicating an idea in fewer words and less time. Let me know what you think.

From me

When you outsource your own thinking, you place too much certainty in someone else's knowledge. When you mistake your confidence for competence, you place too much certainty in your own. Both lead you to be confidently wrong.

Deference to authority drives the first (hence the increasing popularity of "science-backed" and "evidence-based" on every health product and podcast you follow).

The Dunning-Kruger effect drives the second.

The fix is to treat all knowledge as provisional, a core principle of Critical Rationalism. Your mental models are fallible, whether they came from a Nobel laureate, an actor in a lab coat, or the version of you standing at the peak of Mount Stupid.

Read more →


From others

Charles Darwin on confusing confidence with knowledge

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge."

Source: The Descent of Man (1871)

Voltaire on the allure of certainty

"Doubt is an uncomfortable condition, but certainty is a ridiculous one."

Source: Letter to Frederick William (1770)


For you

What's one thing you're currently certain about that you haven't tested recently?


See you next week,

Syn Yun

Learn more at misconcepts.org

Misconcepts are the explanations we hold about how the world works, synonymous with mental models but named deliberately to acknowledge their fallibility. Misconcepts is itself a misconcept and we're always iterating. Reply to this email if you have thoughts. We'd love to hear from you.


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